Fiscal-Monetary Coordination And Interest Rates: Evidence From Speeches By Central Banks And Finance Ministries
Speaker(s) Dr. Srinivasan Murali, Assistant Professor, Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore Publication CAFRAL, Mumbai
ABSTRACT

Coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities significantly impacts macroeconomic policy outcomes. We use a unique text analysis-based framework to evaluate similarities between speeches of fiscal and monetary authorities and identify a strong positive alignment between speech similarities and sovereign bond yields. We find that both emerging and advanced economies' sovereign yields are impacted by speech similarities, especially those on macroeconomic or financial market-related topics. This positive association between speech similarities and yields is also robust to non-macroeconomic announcements by Central Banks. Market participants possibly react to such speech similarities by trading in active bond markets and incorporating an anticipated increase in interest rates into sovereign bond yields.